In a move that is sending shockwaves through the geopolitical landscape of the Eastern Mediterranean, Donald Trump has brought the issue of U.S.-Turkey defense cooperation back into the spotlight. With statements bearing the hallmark of his personal "transactional" diplomacy, the American leader hinted that Washington could reconsider Ankara's exclusion from the F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet program, as well as the sanctions imposed under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
This development is not merely a change in the defense agenda but a potential reversal of the strategy pursued over the last several years. Turkey was expelled from the F-35 program in 2019 following its decision to acquire the Russian S-400 air defense system—a move the Pentagon deemed incompatible with the security of NATO systems. Today, in 2026, the landscape appears to be shifting as Washington seeks new formulas for engagement with Ankara amidst a fluid international environment.
The S-400 Obstacle and the Legal Complexity of CAATSA
To understand the weight of Trump's statements, one must examine the legal wall standing in the way of any normalization effort. CAATSA is not a simple presidential decision that can be revoked with an executive order. It is an act of Congress that mandates sanctions on countries engaging in "significant transactions" with the Russian defense sector. Turkey became the first NATO ally to be hit with such sanctions, targeting its Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) and restricting its access to American technology.
Trump's rhetoric suggests a willingness to bypass or modify these restrictions, provided Turkey offers the necessary concessions. Analysts point out that the "key" remains the fate of the S-400s. Whether through "storage" under U.S. supervision or transfer to a third country, Ankara is being asked to solve a puzzle of its own making. However, President Erdogan's insistence on "national sovereignty" makes any retreat politically costly within Turkey.
The Balance of Power in the Aegean and the "Greece" Factor
For Athens, the prospect of Turkey returning to the F-35 program represents a potential threat to the aerial superiority Greece has secured through its own F-35 order and the upgrade of its F-16 fleet to the Viper level. Greek diplomacy is closely monitoring Washington's moves, reminding stakeholders that defense cooperation cannot be decoupled from respect for international law and regional stability.
The question is whether Trump intends to maintain the doctrine of "balance," offering Turkey a "way out" that does not undermine Greek interests. The possibility of simultaneously strengthening both sides of the Aegean with fifth-generation aircraft could lead to a new arms race, increasing costs for national economies and heightening regional tensions. Greece, having already initiated the integration of F-35s into its arsenal, holds a temporal advantage, but this could evaporate if Ankara rejoins the program at an accelerated pace.
The Geopolitical Chessboard: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine
Trump's stance is not formed in a vacuum. Ongoing instability in Ukraine and the need for a cohesive NATO front are pushing Washington to "entice" Turkey away from Moscow's sphere of influence. The Turkish President has proven to be a master of the policy of equal distances, using his country's geographical position as leverage against both the West and the East.
A potential deal for the F-35s would signify a strategic defeat for Vladimir Putin, effectively nullifying the greatest achievement of Russian defense diplomacy within the heart of NATO. On the other hand, Trump seems to believe that personal relationships and "grand deals" can resolve structural problems that traditional diplomacy fails to touch. The risk remains high: a Turkey equipped with both F-35s and S-400s would be an unpredictable player capable of blackmailing the Alliance from within.
In conclusion, Trump's statements open a period of intense diplomatic activity. The "Art of the Deal" is being tested once again in the most sensitive region of the planet. For Greece, the challenge is to ensure that the American shift does not come at the expense of its own sovereign rights, while for Turkey, the moment of a final choice between Washington and Moscow seems to be looming ominously.
