A new global risk assessment by the Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Health Threats warns that humanity faces the possibility of extinction by the year 2100. The report identifies 17 major threats, with nuclear war and the malicious use of artificial intelligence occupying the most dangerous positions on the list.
Technology and Nuclear Catastrophe
According to the scientific group, the malicious use of AI—including the development of biological weapons—and a potential nuclear conflict pose existential risks within the next 75 years. Scientists explain that a nuclear conflict could lead to a "nuclear famine," as atmospheric particles would block sunlight, devastating global food production.
While the probability of these extreme scenarios remains low, their impact would be absolute. The report utilizes the DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) metric to calculate the loss of healthy life, warning that the realization of these risks would equate to an "apocalypse for humanity."
Climate Crisis and Social Inequalities
Beyond technological threats, the list includes climate collapse, air pollution, and antimicrobial resistance. The Commission emphasizes that taking action to limit global warming to 1.8°C instead of 4.4°C could prevent the loss of 1.89 billion healthy life years.
Significant emphasis is placed on cuts to international development aid by wealthy nations such as the US and the UK. Such a development could cost 1.5 billion years of healthy life, with 70% of the impact concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa. The report concludes that these threats are interconnected and require comprehensive action from global leaders before they evolve into irreversible crises.
