The global economy is entering a slowdown phase under the weight of geopolitical turbulence in the Middle East and increased energy costs. According to the annual report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global GDP growth is expected to slide to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% the previous year.
Trade and Geopolitical Fragmentation
Despite these pressures, global trade in goods and services reached a historic high of $35 trillion, with a projected 4% increase in constant prices. However, UNCTAD notes that rising energy prices are artificially inflating the nominal value of transactions. Geopolitical balances are shifting radically, as bilateral trade between the US and China has dropped by over 20% compared to 2024, with East Asian economies stepping in to fill the gap.
Asia as a Growth Engine and AI Risks
Asia is confirming its leading role, estimated to generate 59% of total global growth in 2026. This momentum is driven by India (7.3%), Indonesia (5.2%), and China (4.5%).
Artificial Intelligence is playing a pivotal role in trade activity, skyrocketing demand for semiconductors and tech infrastructure. However, the UN is sounding the alarm: the concentration of market value in a few tech giants poses serious risks. A potential correction in their valuations could trigger a systemic shock across global markets.
Forecasts from International Organizations
UNCTAD's estimates align with the World Bank's pessimistic forecast of 2.5% growth, which could drop to 1.3% in a worst-case scenario of war escalation. The IMF maintains a slightly more optimistic outlook at 3%, but warns that prolonged conflicts involving Iran and trade fragmentation remain immediate threats to stability.
